Rise or Fall of a Legend: my take on Lewis Hamilton’s chances with Ferrari

Hamilton entering the Abu Dhabi paddock in red. From Talksport.

A true legend of the sport is perhaps the only way to describe Lewis Hamilton’s legacy in Formula 1. The seven -some would say eight- time world champion shocked the motorsport world last year when he announced his departure from Mercedes, after winning six driver’s titles in twelve years with the German team. Ferrari has seen great upward momentum in terms of performance, and longs for their first driver’s title since Kimi Räikkönen in 2007. Heading into the 2025 season Ferrari will set their hopes on winning championships with their new driver pairing, however doubts around Hamilton’s form have been a topic all throughout the 2024 season. Does Hamilton have what it takes to bring Ferrari a championship this year?

Hamilton is definitely not the first legend of the sport seeking success with Ferrari, his most recent predecessor in that regard would be four-time world champion Sebastian Vettel. Now, I won’t get involved in the discussion of who the better driver is between these two. However, I will draw some comparisons between them. In 2015, Vettel moved from Red Bull to Ferrari, his main argument at the time being that Red Bull did not deliver the promised ‘title winning machinery’ anymore. His time with Ferrari unfortunately did not give him that desired fifth title in the sport, Mercedes was simply too strong to compete with. The closest he got to winning the title was the thrilling 2018 season, which ended in shambles after a couple of driver errors cost Vettel dearly in the title race with Hamilton. Ferrari had been on the rise, but when the 2020 season came about everything fell apart. Ferrari finished sixth in the team standings that year, their worst season in forty years. On top of that, the team clearly favored Leclerc over Vettel, which lead to Vettel moving to Aston Martin for his last two years in the sport. Ultimately it can be said that Vettel’s time as a Ferrari driver was not quite what he had expected or hoped for.

Whereas Vettel seemed to be unlucky with his timing of the move to Ferrari, I think quite the opposite can be said for Hamilton’s timing. The Britton proved he is no slouch when it comes to being in the right place at the right time, as he has been able to consistently battle for victories and titles in most of his seasons. Starting out as a rookie in 2007 with McLaren, it would only take him two years to win the championship. When new power unit regulations were announced for the 2014 season, Hamilton moved from a struggling McLaren team to the upcoming Mercedes team in 2012, a shocker considering McLaren was second as opposed to Mercedes in fourth in the 2011 constructors’ championship. Somehow, Hamilton made the perfect call as Mercedes’ engines would be unmatched for seven seasons in a row. His only struggle with the team was his teammate Nico Rosberg who gave Hamilton some tough battles for the championship in the first few years with the team, the German driver even took the title in 2016 and retired immediately after. This led to Hamilton almost cruising it to four titles in a row, except for the 2018 season where we seemed to be in for a fight for the first half of it at least. Mercedes has struggled however in the last four years, losing out to Max Verstappen in 2021, and losing more ground from 2022 onward as aerodynamic regulations changed again. This led to Hamilton showing some frustrations towards his once so successful team, losing out to his teammate George Russell in the standings. He also openly spoke about personal struggles throughout the season “It’s been a very emotional year for me and I don’t think I’ve been the best at handling my emotions this year” said the seven time world champion during the press conference before last year’s Abu Dhabi grand prix. Hamilton’s form is in doubt; however, the excitement of a new team might just light his spark again in 2025.

The main thing setting Hamilton’s Ferrari move apart from Vettel’s, is the state of the Ferrari team itself. Ever since the 2022 regulation changes, Ferrari has been able to find ways to extract more performance from their car. Probably the biggest part in this has been replacing team principal Mattia Binotto with Fred Vasseur in 2023, after decades of Italian leadership it seems Frenchman Vasseur is focusing more on building a coherent team than maintaining the ‘Ferrari culture’. And it visibly pays off. When Vettel moved to Ferrari, he was a four-time world champion and the team expected he would build a team of engineers around himself, as had been a successful approach back in the early 2000s with Michael Schumacher winning five titles in a row. This approach, however, clearly does not work well for most drivers, and that is therefore the key change Ferrari had to make. It seems likely that it will be Ferrari battling it out with McLaren in both the driver’s and the constructor’s championship this year.

Leclerc in Ferrari's 2024 challenger during the Spanish GP , from ferrari.com

Getting Hamilton in a Ferrari is probably the most exciting Formula 1 development ahead the upcoming season. Ferrari hiring a multiple world champion is not a first, and as I illustrated through drawing parallels with Vettel’s Ferrari move is not always a guarantee for success. However, taking into consideration the key structural changes in the Ferrari management, I can only conclude that the team should have a great chance of fighting for titles this year. Hamilton is one of the few drivers who can outperform a racecar, as long as the car suits his driving style. I am sure he will face great challenges, in battling McLaren and his teammate Charles Leclerc, however I believe Hamilton’s move may well put him in a possibility of winning a record breaking eighth world title, but it is in his own hands to pose the best possible challenge to his competitors.